[R] using extremes - extreme value analysis for low (minimum) temperature

Chuck Snell chuck.snell.email at gmail.com
Fri Feb 3 20:57:24 CET 2017


I am trying to answer the question:

"What is the probability of a certain day's low forecast (of 21) being the
month's overall low?"

I decided to attempt it in R

Searching pointed me to extreme value analysis.

I created a csv file of the last 8 years lows for the month:
year       month's low

2009 10.04

2010 18.493

2011 7.547

2012 15.008

2013 19.283

2014 9.508

2015 2.55

2016 20.1

I loaded "extremes"


I successfully loaded the csv file.
I initially started with fitting to a Gumbel

fit2 <- fevd(PeakingLowTemp,FebruaryEVA,type="Gumbel")

Now for my question - unfortunately the examples I am finding all deal with
maximums -
meaning maximum high temps and probability of exceeding and maximum
rainfall and probability of exceeding

I need to fit the lows (minimums) and calculate the probability of being
less than a temp.

Can you help guide me with the remainder of my setup


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