[R] Task estimation - Monte Carlo

[Mohan.Radhakrishnan at cognizant.com]

Hi

   I am trying to  simulate task estimation person days using this type of R code. But I am not sure about reasoning here. Should the distribution be beta or triangular or something else ? How do we get the values of mu,z and s here ? Are there any explanations available ? Sections of some book ?

I have the book about monte carlo analysis using R but that looks like the next step for me. I am at a preliminary stage.


taskestimation <- function( low , high, ci=0.9, n=10000) {
mu = mean(c(low,high))
z = qnorm(1-(1-ci)/2)
s = (high - mu)/z
rnorm(n, mu, s)
}

result = taskestimation(10,80)


#calculate the percentage of cases below certain number of days
length(result[result < 50])/length(result)

I am able to plot a density curve showing the percentage of completion below '50' days that the simulation predicts.

Thanks,
Mohan
This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are for the sole use of the intended recipient(s) and may contain confidential and privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient(s), please reply to the sender and destroy all copies of the original message. Any unauthorized review, use, disclosure, dissemination, forwarding, printing or copying of this email, and/or any action taken in reliance on the contents of this e-mail is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. Where permitted by applicable law, this e-mail and other e-mail communications sent to and from Cognizant e-mail addresses may be monitored.

	[[alternative HTML version deleted]]